The year 2024 has already been defined by global economic turmoil, and as it enters a critical phase with the start of the new academic year in September, the coming months are crucial for monetary policy, financial markets, and overall economic stability in the United States.

The economic calendar for this fall is packed with key events that could shape the future of the U.S. and global economies.

1.

Federal Reserve Meeting: A Shift in Monetary Policy?

One of the most anticipated events this fall is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for September 17-18, 2024.

After a year of turbulent inflation and historically high interest rates, the Fed may use this meeting to reassess its monetary policy.

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Since 2022, the Federal Reserve has been pursuing an aggressive policy of raising interest rates to curb inflation.

However, in 2024, as inflation shows signs of slowing down and concerns over economic growth intensify, the FOMC may consider halting rate hikes or even lowering rates if conditions allow.

This meeting is crucial for investors and businesses, as any decision will directly impact the borrowing costs and risk appetite in the financial markets.

2.

Key Economic Indicators: Growth or Recession?

A series of major economic indicators will be released in September and October.

The employment report for September, which will be released in early October, will provide important insights into the health of the U.S. labor market.

Following a slowdown in job creation in recent months, this report will be closely watched for signs of recovery or further decline.

Additionally, inflation data, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be released in mid-September and early October.

These figures are crucial for assessing whether the Fed's efforts to control inflation have been successful or if further adjustments are needed.

By the end of October, the first estimate of the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released.

With expectations already moderate, this report could confirm whether the U.S. economy is stagnating or managing to maintain a stable growth trajectory despite global economic challenges.

3.

Real Estate and Consumer Confidence: Contradictory Signals?

The real estate sector will also be a key economic indicator.

Data on new and existing home sales, as well as building permits, will be released in September and October.

With mortgage rates remaining high, it will be interesting to see whether the housing market shows signs of stabilization or continues to weaken.

Meanwhile, consumer and business confidence indices will play a significant role in gauging economic sentiment.

Consumer confidence, in particular, could be decisive in influencing spending decisions ahead of the holidays, a critical period for many industries.

Thus, the fall of 2024 will be a decisive period for the U.S. economy.

With inflationary pressures, potential shifts in monetary policy, and political uncertainties creating a challenging environment, the coming months will be key in determining the direction of economic growth and stability.