UBS precious metals strategist Joni Teves said that even as gold prices approach historical highs, precious metals continue to receive support from central banks, investors, and the spot market.

However, the Fed's policy is both a source of support and a source of risk.

In a recent report, Teves pointed out: "We believe the uptrend in gold is supported and will rise further in the coming years."

"Strong official sector purchases and resilient physical demand mean structural support and raise the trading range for gold," while "macroeconomic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risks may drive an increase in investors' gold allocation, which is still low."

Considering sovereign demand, Teves said that UBS believes there is room for further increases in official gold purchases.

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"Although the official sector has purchased a significant amount of gold over the past decade, we believe this trend can continue," she said, and shared three reasons she thinks this is possible.

"There is often inertia in official sector flows.

The rationale for diversification remains valid, and there is room to continue.

Given that 'selling the family jewels' could damage confidence, strategic sales are unlikely."

Teves also said, "Compared to nearby peers, many central banks still have a low proportion of gold in total reserves," highlighting India's high reserve ratio compared to the rest of Asia, and the high reserves of Turkey and Russia compared to Central and Eastern European countries.

However, she acknowledged, "The uncertainty of the degree of purchases brings two-way price risk."

Speaking of the physical gold market, Teves pointed out that physical demand also helps to support the broader market.

"It has been proven that consumer demand is largely resilient over time," she said, and noted that "India's gold imports face headwinds from rising prices, but underlying interest remains strong."

"In China, the headwinds of jewelry demand may be offset by strong investment interest," she said, and pointed out that the country's "onshore premium has eased."

Regarding the relationship between precious metals and interest rates, Teves pointed out that the relationship between gold and real interest rates is asymmetrical.

She said, "Compared to historical levels, gold's sensitivity to real interest rates has decreased in the past few years."

"This year, this relationship has broken down."

As the Fed prepares to start the long-awaited rate cut cycle later this month, Teves pointed out that the Fed's policy easing is another positive factor for gold.

She said, "In the recent easing cycle, the median increase was higher 12 months after the Fed's first rate cut."

"In the previous Fed easing cycles, gold rose about 9% within 2-3 quarters after the first rate cut."

Speaking of the futures market, Teves said that UBS also sees room for growth there.

"We believe the market is not crowded," she said, adding that unlike prices, "speculative positions have not reached historical highs."

On ETFs and other investment vehicles, Teves described positioning as "relatively light," saying, "The broader investor positioning comes from a low base."

"The investor base is much broader, with less gold allocation for diversification."

UBS believes that there is still room for investors to build positions.

Teves pointed out, "ETF outflows may reflect rebalancing rather than a change in the gold outlook—the value of gold ETFs has been relatively stable."

"Gold ETFs have not turned, and the private wealth sector has not actively recommended increasing/adding gold allocations."